The objective of this Diploma Thesis is to investigate the effect of the economic recession on road fatalities and severe injuries in Greece. For this analysis, suitably processed road accident data during the period 2003-2014 have been exploited. The period 2009-2014 is considered to be the period of economic recession due to the continuous GDP per capita decrease. Firstly, a loglinear model of the overall period (2003-2014) was developed, in order to correlate the economic crisis with road accidents. Two additional specific loglinear models were also developed, one related to the period before crisis (2003-2008) and the other related to the period during crisis, in order to reveal the mechanisms through which traffic accidents were influenced. It appears that the economic recession has led to a significant reduction in fatalities and serious injuries. The principal mechanisms bringing this decline about are the reduction of accidents with involvement of passenger cars, of young drivers and outside traffic junctions. These results indicate that apart from the decline of vehicle kilometers of travel, the change in road user behavior might have contributed to the total improvement of road safety during the economic crisis.
| ID | ad66 |
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| Tags | accident analysis, statistical modelling |
